Showing posts with label Canada supply management. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Canada supply management. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Germany’s Social Market Economy for China and Canada?



China’s use of a mix of central planning and competitive markets has increased the country’s national income dramatically for two decades. However, recently economic growth has slowed, and some serious planning mistakes have been made.
In the light of these developments, it is interesting that some high-ranking Chinese economic policy makers recently asked two German economists to let them know what policies had been used to create Germany’s rapid economic recovery after the devastation of the Second World War, its solid economic growth thereafter and its protection from the worst effects of the global recessions of 2001 and 2008, implying that China’s leadership may be in search of solutions to the problems its development model has produced.
These two economists sent to China a collection of essays, which explain the Social Market Economy Model (SMEM) that was used by Germany’s Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and his Minister of Economics Ludwig Erhard to shape the country’s early postwar economic policies in spite of much opposition from politicians who preferred socialism and economic planning. The model presently still informs most of Germany’s economic policies.
This model was developed by economists at the University of Freiburg in Germany. It argues that national income is maximized if individual and business incomes are determined in free markets for production and distribution while government regulations and spending are used to meet the requirements of the needy, provide public goods such as defence and construct economic infrastructure such as highways.
The effort of China’s leaders to improve its economic performance by learning about and adapting policies that have been successful elsewhere is not without precedence.  Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s considered the prosperity of market economies and replaced the centralized planning model with one that imitates their economic system.
The SMEM model should also be considered by Canada, which is experiencing a period of growing economic problems: low rates of growth, investment and productivity while unsustainable fiscal deficits are growing. These problems are in part caused by policies that violate the operating principles of the SMEM model in several important areas.
For example, farmers wanting to produce dairy products have to buy quotas and, in effect, join a cartel, which sets production levels and prices at which the farmers are allowed to operate. The farmers earn high and stable returns on their investments, but the industry operates with many inefficiencies and consumers pay much above world prices. The SMEM model suggests that these costs would be avoided if the production and sale of dairy products were left to competitive markets and farmers were paid subsidies out of general tax revenue at levels considered to be socially desirable.
Another example involves the market for medical services. Canada’s governments effectively own and operate institutions and employ health care workers to provide the public with all required medical services at zero cost at the point of use. This policy is designed to ensure that all Canadians have access to medical care regardless of their level of income. The SMEM model suggests that the medical services should be provided by the private sector and that subsidies should be paid to those who cannot afford to buy them.
Yet another example is the housing industry. Many municipalities impose regulations that allow the construction of multiple housing units only if builders spend funds on public art and build units to be sold or rented at below-market prices. These regulations raise the cost of all housing unnecessarily. The SMEM model suggests that builders should be allowed to produce housing without facing these regulations so that it can be constructed and sold at the lowest prices possible. General tax revenue should be used to pay for socially desirable art and subsidize those who cannot afford housing at market prices.
The drift away from SMEM in Canada has reached a peak with the 2019 passage of Bill C-69. It requires private investors in pipelines and other large infrastructure projects to obtain a “social license” by compensating all “stakeholders” whose interests are damaged by these investments. This bill will raise the cost of infrastructure investments and the services they provide for consumers. The SMEM model suggests that these costs should be avoided by allowing these investments to proceed without having to incur the costs imposed by Bill C-69 and that stakeholders’ interests should be taken care of by payments from general tax revenue.
Canadian politicians love imposing on private investors and producers the cost of non-market benefits of the sort just described. It allows them to buy the votes of the recipients of these benefits without having to impose vote-costing taxes on the public. But in the process, they are destroying the free market system that has brought Canada one of the highest standards of living in the world and history. They should consider the cost of the increasing abandonment of SMEM-model based policies, especially Bill C-69.
Herbert Grubel
Emeritus Professor of Economics
Simon Fraser University
Senior Fellow, The Fraser Institute

Monday, October 23, 2017

SUPPLY MANAGEMENT AND THE INTEREST OF CONSUMERS AND FARMERS


This article has been published in the Fraser Institute Blog found at SUPPLY MANAGEMENT AND THE INTEREST OF CONSUMERS AND FARMERS

A leading politician recently explained to me why the last Conservative government in Ottawa did not abolish supply management: “It was not in the party’s interest”, implying that in fact it would have been in the public interest to have done so.
   
Why all governments since the inception of the system in the 1970s allowed the party over the public interest to dominate is easy to explain. The beneficiaries of the system spend large amounts of money lobbying politicians to retain it and punish those who do not. On the other hand, for the vast majority of voters the existence of supply management and the costs it brings are of relatively little importance and politicians would expect few electoral gains from ending the system. In fact, the results of a recent Angus Reid poll revealed that 58 percent of Canadians had “no idea” and 38% “knew little” on how the system works and therefore how much it costs them.[1]

However, the status quo is now threatened by President Donald Trump’s demand for an end to Canada’s supply management system during the renegotiation of the NAFTA treaty.[2] As a result, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government faces a problem. If it insists on maintaining the system, US negotiators will demand reciprocal concessions that decrease Canadian exports, the exchange rate, employment and economic growth. 

If, on the other hand, the Liberal government agrees to abolish supply management, consumer prices will fall and the present level of US restrictions on Canadian exports will be maintained or even lowered and bring other benefits to the middle class the Liberals have promised to help.

The loss of the current electoral and financial support from the beneficiaries of the system can be made up by a government program explaining to voters why this policy is in their interest. The focus of such a campaign should be the simple explanation of how this system operates and how it affects their cost of living.

The explanation[3] should start by pointing to a very important and simple fact: Anyone in Canada who wants to produce or import dairy products, poultry and eggs and sell them must buy a quota from other farmers or face persecution resulting in fines or jail. With the ownership of the quota comes the right to sell a specified amount these products at prices fixed by a government-sanctioned association of producers.

By controlling the quantity of quotas in the market, this association determines the total amount produced and thus the prices at which demand equals supply in Canada. These prices are supposed to allow farmers to pay their capital and running costs and earn a normal profit. In fact, however, they are higher by amounts farmers need to pay the interest on the loan they had to take out to purchase the quota. Recently, according to a non-profit organization that represents Alberta’s dairy producers, the cost of a quota in Alberta came to $36,000 per cow or $3.9 million for an average-sized dairy herd of 108 cows.[4]  

The very existence of the quota price, which is found on the internet,[5] is incontrovertible evidence that consumers in Canada pay more for dairy products, poultry and eggs than it costs farmers to produce them and that without supply management consumer prices for these products would be lower. How much lower would these prices be? According to one recent peer-reviewed publication[6] the average family in Canada would save $444 annually. This burden is greater for the poor and families with children smaller for the rich and childless.

One reason why politicians may have been reluctant to end supply management in the past is that it will conflict with Canadians’ sense of fairness and will bring financial hardships or even bankruptcy to farmers whose income is curtailed but whose debt obligations remain, all caused by governments and for reasons beyond their control.

The government can deal with this problem by creating a financial adjustment program, the basic features of which are found in Australia’s recent experience.[7] That country in 2000 had ended supply management and assisted farmers through quarterly payments over eight years. Farmers leaving the industry were paid a lump sum.

An important feature of the program was that its cost was covered not by funds drawn from general government revenue but by the imposition of a surcharge of 11 cents per litre on the buyers of milk scheduled to last eight years. These costs in effect are an investment lasting eight years, which will bring a return of lower milk prices into the indefinite future.

It was not easy to design a compensating package that was fair to all Australian farmers and it would not be easy to do so in Canada, especially since the termination of supply management will impact farmers differently, depending on the time and price at which they had obtained their quotas. Some had received them free of charge when the system was created in the 1970s while the rest have enjoyed gains in the ever increasing value of their quotas depending on the time of their purchase. Most seriously hurt would be farmers who had bought their quotas recently.

However, these issues of compensation can and will be overcome simply because ending supply management will bring large and lasting benefits to Canadian consumers and in addition, will remove one of the greatest irritants in Canada’s relations with its global trading partners, increase economic and personal freedoms and allow free market forces to improve through time the quality, variety and costs of all agricultural products.

References:

Alberta Milk (2017), “How much does quota cost for a 108 cow dairy?”, found at https://albertamilk.com/ask-dairy.../how-much-does-quota-cost-for-a-108-cow-dairy/

Canadian Dairy Information Center (2017), Monthly Milk Quota Exchange, found at http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/index_e.php?s1=dff-fcil&s2=quota&s3=qe-tq

Cardwell, Ryan, Chad Lawley and Di Xiang. 2015. “Milked and Feathered: The Regressive Welfare Effects of Canada’s Supply Management Regime.” Canadian Public Policy 41(1): 1-14.

Edwards, Geoff (2003), “The story of deregulation in the dairy industry”,  The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 47:1, pp. 75–98 *
Globerman, Steven and Christopher Sands (2017), The Fate of NAFTA: Possible Scenarios and their Implications for Canada, The Fraser Institute, found at https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/fate-of-NAFTA-possible-scenarios-and-their-implications-for-canada-execsum.pdf
Grubel, Herbert and Richard Schwindt (1977), The Real Cost of the BC Milk Board, The Fraser Institute, found at https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/real-cost-of-the-bc-milk-board.pdf

Reid, Angus (2017), “Supply Management: Most Canadians say scrapping system should be on the table during NAFTA talks”, found at http://angusreid.org/supply-management-nafta-renegotiation/



[1] See Reid (2017)
[2] For a discussion of the demand and broader issues surrounding it see Globerman and Sand (2017).
[3] For an early study of supply management and its cost see Grubel and Schwindt (1977)
[4] See Alberta Milk (2017)
[5] See Canadian Dairy Information Center (2017)
[6] See Cardwell et al (2017)
[7] See Edwards (2003)